Month: August 2024

I’ve downloaded 10,000 lines of 6hour data on ADAUSDT from Binance, since 2018-04-17 which is when it started trading on that platform. I’ve processed it into set of returns over various timeframes, some lagged returns, an indicator or two and worked out a target for each row. Given a close price for any candle (ohlc data for a single time period) the target is 1 if the close price of any candle over the next 5 days is more than 1% higher, and 0 if not. Running xgboost on this data, with two thirds for training and one third for testing, the resulting confusion matrix is:

	Predicted Negative	Predicted Positive
True Negative (0)	291	508
True Positive (1)	147	2308

Not too bad. I’ll work on reducing the false positives, but at this stage I haven’t included the RL network to critique the overall trading environment, and maybe that will reduce the risk of trading on false signals.

I used the trained model to make a prediction about the latest price. It predicts that ADAUSDT will be at least 1% higher than it is now sometime over the next five days. Mirabile dictu!

Decision time. After considering lots of options, here’s the plan. I intend to trade manually (not via a bot) and for that to be doable I think the shortest timeframe that makes sense is 6 hour. So, check the prices and the models four times a day.

Whatever I decide to trade, use XGBoost to generate signals, where the target is a profit over the following five days. So cumulative return over the next 20 periods is greater than some threshold, at some point. State will be as much input related to the instrument as I can find, that has some predictive capability.

Check the output of this model using an RL model that uses any non-endogenous data that I can dream up, using returns from the first model as rewards. Basically keep adding stuff until I get some result. Once that happens I’ll start trading a small amount. Long only. Probably on Binance. So, time to start putting all this together. Rubber hits the road. Almost.

Transfer learning involves using a model trained on one dataset for a different dataset. As a major problem with crypto is lack of data, as many coins have not been around for very long, one needs to use fairly high frequency data to train the model. I’m not referring to high frequency trading here, with timeframes in the milliseconds. For me hourly data is pretty high frequency, as I generally prefer to work with daily data.

So, if I can train a model on hourly data, but then use it to make predictions on daily data, the job could be done. I clearly need to explore transfer learning more closely, but it seems that it involves keeping early layers of a neural network but replacing the final layer, or something like that. I’m a bit encouraged by the possibility of all this by a comment I remember from one of the first books I read on price action trading, which said that chart patterns have a fractal nature, in that they look the same whatever timeframe one is looking at. Anyway, definitely an avenue to explore

I ran xgboost on my large dataset, as a binary classification problem. For the target I simply recorded whether the following time period’s return was positive, or not. So basically, given current data, will the price go up in the next hour? Here’s the resulting confusion matrix:

	Predicted Negative	Predicted Positive
True Negative	4046	3834
True Positive	3678	4203

These figures relate to a test set. The model was trained on the first 70% of data, and tested (above) on the remaining 30%. Overall accuracy was 52.34%, and precision was 52.30%

I guess the most important numbers are the predicted positive values. This was correct more often than not. The percentage of true positives in the test dataset is 50.00%, and with close to 16,000 entries in the test set, the 2% advantage is probably significant. But is it big enough to be exploitable?

I’ve used xgboost without any tuning. I’ve just skimmed through that reference on using xgboost that I mentioned in a previous post. More significantly, can I refine my signals by using an RL model to validate whether the market as a whole is in a good state to trade? Or to determine position size based on level of risk? At least I have something to work with. A slight edge.

Marcos Lopez de Prado has championed the concept of meta-labelling, which, in the field of quantitative trading, means using an ML model to apply risk management to a different quantitative trading strategy. Ernie Chan has discussed this in various contexts, for example here.

So if I was to use this in my trading, how would it relate to what I’m currently doing? The suggestion seems to be that a deep neural network ‘scrutinizes’ the output of some more shallow ML model, or indeed any other strategy including simple discretionary (not quantitative) trading.

So I’m wondering if perhaps I should use something like XGBoost to identify signals for trading, and use my RL model to assess whether trading those signals is a good idea and if so, how much to put on them. That’s pretty much the reverse of what I’ve been contemplating for the past few days. However with some theoretical basis (and actual practice) supporting this approach, I think I’ll give it a go. As for features, I’m thinking that endogenous features (related to the asset I’m trading) should be used for the base model, XGBoost in this case, and exogenous data for the ‘supervisory’ model. That’s my intuition anyway, so I’ll go with that, at least for starters.

I’ve pretty much got my head around the implementation of the Advantage Actor Critic (A2C) algorithm provided by Ivan Gridin in his book Practical Deep Reinforcement Learning with Python. There are a couple of lines of code I’m a bit uncertain about, but running them through the debugger and having a good look at what changes they bring about should help clarify.

Ivan’s example trades Microsoft stock, downloaded with yfinance (which gets data from Yahoo Finance). The networks he’s using are pretty basic, as is the trading strategy he’s using, and the state he constructs also. So the task ahead is to modify it to work with any data (and specifically my crypto data), to construct more elaborate state, use a more sophisticated trading strategy, and explore more complex network architectures, perhaps including networks other than MLPs. All without breaking the code!

These changes are not particularly challenging. Actually finding good solutions might be challenging, but it’s basically trial and error from here on out. I think at this stage I can say that I know what I’m doing. Probably not a good thing to say. Can I hear Nemesis winging my way?

I think I’ve worked out what has been a major source of confusion for me. The books and courses I’ve been reading/viewing on RL have made a big deal about policy gradient methods being ‘parametric’, yet it seems to me that the only real difference between using a NN for Q learning or policy gradient learning is whether or not there’s a softmax activation layer on the output. Everything a neural network does is parametric, if one considers the network weights to be parameters. I just can’t work out what the big deal is about.

However, I think now that it’s for historical reasons. When I was teaching basic computer concepts to first year students one encounters terms like ROM and RAM in relation to types of memory, and yet those terms are meaningless. ROM is RAM, in that it’s random access memory, which is what RAM stands for. The real difference (back then) is that RAM is volatile and ROM is not. However there was a time, in the dawn of computing, when tapes were used for storage, and these are sequential storage devices. This is the real alternative to random access. But the terms stuck, and were used in ways no longer appropriate to their actual meaning.

So it’s finally occurred to me that these approaches to reinforcement learning predate the use of neural networks as function approximators. And all the concepts around the different approaches reflect what were real differences. So the fact that one treats the output of the network a bit differently if one is using it for a policy gradient strategy than if one is using it for a value gradient strategy might not seem much of a difference, but before neural networks the differences were probably a lot greater. Just like once upon a time the web and email (and news) were all different services on the internet, with different servers and clients, but now that has all converged to ‘the web’. For a long time I read email with Thunderbird, and occasionally used RSS Owl to ‘consume’ newsgroups. And paid my utility bills in person.

I’ve been overthinking this whole Deep RL thing. Having got a basic Policy Gradient algorithm up and running, I think I can lay out a high level view of what it’s all about.

• State (numbers) from the environment input to network
• Network produces some other numbers (output)
• Agent uses some process to decide how to translate those numbers into an action to send to environment
• Agent sends action to Environment
• Environment responds with new state and reward
• Agent evaluates ‘how good was that response’, aka loss function
• Agent instructs network to do better next time (minimize loss)
• Network attempts to oblige until Agent is happy with the outcome

Step 3 is where all the theory comes in. The basic policy gradient algorithm takes the output (the number of output values equals the number of available actions) and scales them until they are all positive, all lie between 0 and 1, and all add up to 1. Then the agent thinks, hey, these look like probabilities. And the action sent to the environment is based on that. If the numbers are 0.7, 0.2 and 0.1, then the agent chooses action A 70% of the time, action B 20% of the time, and action C 10% of the time. If the Agent is in a Q learning frame of mind, it uses the numbers to get to know the model of the environment a bit better. Whatever the process is, as long as there’s some measure of ‘how good was that’ the network can work towards improving the overall result.

The other aspect of all this is ‘improving’ the result, not in the sense of maximizing it but in the sense of smoothing it out. Hence a double Deep Q network will produce a smoother output than a single Deep Q network. And I imagine more elaborate variations of the Policy Gradient idea will produce smoother, maybe faster, results.

So what the books and courses are mostly about is how the Agent decides, on the basis of the numbers provided by the network, what to do in the Environment. As far as the network and the environment are concerned, it’s all just numbers.

I have a basic Policy Gradient algorithm up and running at last. The code comes from a Udemy course by Phil Tabor (specifically on AC methods), which I modified very slightly to use with my algorithm testing app. It’s not performing all that well, and I don’t fully understand the code, but it’s a starting point. From here I can study the ‘inner workings’ more closely with the help of the debugger to step through code and see what it actually does. Also my reading will have a solid point of reference. I find it hard to think about these things in purely abstract terms. And I can work on modifications and improvements.

I think I’ve reached the most important milestone, moving from ‘can I do this?’ to ‘this is doable’. I’ve certainly had huge doubts over the past couple of months, or longer. This field is more ‘math heavy’ than any I’ve previously tackled, and I find that very challenging. There’s the question how much do I need to understand the maths that underpins the algorithms. I’ve always found it easier to do something if I understand what I’m doing, rather than blindly following instructions, but many people don’t seem to labour under that constraint. Anyway, I now feel confident to move forward.