Here’s the latest plan. Trade ETH for BTC. I have some BTC on Binance. Without any need for shorting if ETH goes up against BTC I can simply trade BTC for ETH on the spot market at 0.15% fee. And when it goes down against BTC I can trade back the other way. Unfortunately ETH has been falling against BTC for quite a while now and it might be some time before I get to put my first trade on using this strategy.
I’ve backtested this plan, and it gives a decent return, about 50% profit in the past year. Significantly better result using XGBoost with the MA crossover than when not using it. Of course those backtest results never work out in practice, often quite the opposite. I guess it’s a matter of how much I actually commit to trading this strategy. It definitely makes the whole business simpler though, and that’s a good thing.
UPDATE:
I’ve just backtested using the XGBoost alone, and that gives me the best result on this pair so far. And as for waiting for ETH to go up against BTC, I could just borrow some ETH on AAVE and transfer to Binance…